Find Neo’s notes below for the markets today.
Market Update 14/02/2023
GBP – Claimant Count Change – The actual came out more positive than expected providing with a sign of a much better economic situation, keep in mind that Claimant Count change is viewed as a lagging indicator, yet it is the first sign of overall economic health, and it is significant importance.
As mentioned before volatility was experienced EUR/GBP – GBP/USD
USD – CPI m/m y/y and Core CPI m/m – Overall measurement of inflation. The forecast predicts a decrease, from 6.5% to 6.2%. The overall question is how the Feds will react to the outcome regarding the interest rate, will there be another hike or a halt? Later today 3 members of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Logan, Harker, and Williams will speak to a live audience and answer questions. They are expected to provide with clues as to the Feds intentions.
Volatility is expected to occur before and after the CPI data release.
OIL
As promised before we will be keeping you update about oil
Last week Russia announced the output cut of 500k barrels per day(production cut by half a million barrels per day) for the month of March, the move came as a retaliation from the sanctions imposed from Europe regarding price caps. However, ING analyst Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey stated that Russia has a sale deficit.
Since the EU ban, Russia is struggling to find buyers for its OIL, as a result a decrease in supply is expected to increase demand and in return an increase in price
Make sure to read our upcoming article for more information.
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